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October mildness in December: But major weather changes in Atlantic this week!

The past week has been astonishingly mild in Stornoway: The average daily high has been +11.8C, with a daily low of +7.1C; these values are more akin with early-to-mid October than December!

However, major changes are afoot in Northern Hemispheric atmosphere over the next few days. In stark contrast with the winter so far, a dome of extremely cold air (with a 1000-500hPa thickness of less than 480dam) will collapse over eastern Canada, surging out over Labrador and Newfoundland during mid-week. This will create an intense thermal (baroclinic) gradient, likely leading to super-powerful storms in the western North Atlantic (933hPa is forecast near Newfy on Thurs). It's not certain yet whether such energy will transfer east to Scotland - but it's worth keeping on eye on my blog and Twitter in the coming days just in case (NAVGEM met model T+84 and T+126 charts below).

11dec2016_nvg10.thk.084.atlantic.gif

11dec2016_nvg10.thk.126.atlantic.gif

@eddy_weather, Stornoway, 11 Dec 2016

Comments

Matt Groves
13 December 2016, 9:38 AM

Eddy,

Great to have just found this Blog - very exciting and late coming across it! Can you explain the mythic 528 line (as i have heard it called!)?

Matt Groves

1 comment